Guess the beginning, but not the end. Influenced by the unexpected data of social finance last week, we are generally optimistic about today’s opening. There is no doubt about opening high. So the difference is whether to go high, open flat or open low? But nobody expected that the high opening and low going formed a continuous downward trend in the market, and finally the market was green, and all the indices fell in such a situation.
Of course, compared with the opening, the index fell considerably, because after half an hour in the morning, the Shanghai index rose by more than 2%, and finally fell by 0.34%, so the amplitude from high to low is almost 2.34%; Shencheng index is not much different, Shencheng index rose a little higher in the morning, increased by 2.3%, and finally fell by 0.78%, from high to low, the amplitude is close to 3%; The industry board is relatively weak today. Maybe the situation of GEM implies a real situation. The highest growth rate in GEM is just over 3%. At the beginning of the market, it rose to about 1.6%. As a result, the final market fell by 1.7%. The combined amplitude of inside and outside is 3.3%. So the killing power of this negative line exceeds many people’s imagination.
So you have to ask, who is leaving? Who is reducing warehouse and selling goods? On the one hand, of course, the outflow of GEM capital is 5.1 billion; on the other hand, Shenzhen outflow is 19.2 billion, Shanghai outflow is 10.3 billion, and the total outflow is about 30 billion.
How are the funds going up north today? Shenzhen stock is a net outflow at the beginning of the trading, which is basically a straight downward trend until the end of the trading, with a final outflow of 1.1 billion; Shanghai is still a net inflow at 11 a.m., with a net inflow of 1.7 billion, but it has been downward since 11 a.m. and turned into an outflow of 682 million by the end of the trading, which is equivalent to more than 2 billion inside and outside. Institutions are running, funds are running northward. It is conceivable that what will happen today?
Everybody said why should we run? The financial data is not good, and it indicates that the economy may bottom out. Speaking of this, we should calm down. After all, the index has risen by more than 800 points from 2440 to 3288. It is understandable and acceptable to have a larger adjustment in this position.
Today, insurance, diversified finance and banking are the hardest and the best sectors on the market. Banks have the most capital inflows. But we can see that in the outflow sector, the most outflow is the chemical sector, the electricity sector, and the securities business sector that securities firms speculated fiercely in the early stage.
Securities companies are very, very ineffective today, so the downturn of the securities companies today is a fuse to a certain extent. Why are the vouchers so low? You can think about it. To some extent, securities dealers are a vane. If the brokerage firms are not horizontal, consolidated and unstable today, it will be very difficult for them to make a difference. But if the brokerage firms are fighting together today, the situation may not be the same.
Generally speaking, the adjustment of A shares has entered the adjustment time. Today’s adjustment once again confirms the inevitability and sustainability of last week’s adjustment, including the outflow of funds from the north, which further proves that our judgment on the market is reasonable. Generally speaking, the market still needs to be adjusted.
Judging from the fluctuation of individual stocks, there are more stocks falling today, with more than 2500 stocks, less than 1000 stocks rising, 53 stocks rising and stopping, and 17 stocks falling and stopping. There are some iconic stocks, such as derivative technology, which started trading today and went up and down in a moment, but then gradually declined; stocks like Visual China continue to fall and stop.
So now the problem is that in April, there may be more black swans. The closer to April 30, the later the annual report is published, the greater the risk, the sooner or later the ugly daughter-in-law meets her parents-in-law. “See parents-in-law” market will find that the original performance is still so bad, so the most worrying is actually this.
Today, from the perspective of this trend on the market, the first is the firm reduction of institutional positions, and the second is the sinking momentum. Although there is no sharp drop, the characteristics of slow decline and sustained decline are more obvious.
One comment: The main force is to lose pounds at high altitudes, and retail investors take over and change jobs.